As busy as I am, I can't help but take some time to talk about E3 and what I see coming down the pipe! Here are my top predictions for things not already leaked and speculated by hundreds of other sources.
Nintendo is going to steal the show by not being there
I’ve already covered Nintendo’s decision to pass on E3 this year as being far from shocking, but now that we’ve had a chance to see their “plain B” I’m very excited. Rather than have a few playable stations at the show to share with the media, Nintendo is shipping out hundreds of preview Wii U games to Best Buy while doing a Nintendo direct to talk about them. E3 might be nerd Christmas, but you don’t have to go too far from the hardcore of hardcore before you find gamers who don’t even know E3 is this weekend. That all changes when the weekend I can check a game website for news becomes the weekend I can go play the next Zelda game at Best Buy months before it's released. By simple numbers, more people will be plugged in and aware of what Nintendo is doing then Microsoft or Sony.
Someone special is going to be on stage with Microsoft
Microsoft has something Sony and Nintendo can never match; a boatload of money. With a lacklustre reception to the Xbox One reveal from gamers, it’s pretty much a sure thing that they are going to double down at E3 and just toss money at the problem. Let’s be honest; having Steven Spielberg on board for a halo series was only big enough for an off mention at the reveal, and Xbox execs have been seen a whole lot of places they shouldn’t be lately. Add that to rumours that MS is looking to restructure to give Xbox more resources and money, I think we are going to see a true shocker of a partnership at E3. I’m talking steam on Xbox, big screen movies on Xbox before they are in theatres or a Naughty Dogs Xbox exclusive shocker.
Sony “focus on games” will be exactly the opposite of that
From tweeting “slow news day” the day of the One reveal to saying that the PS4 is different than the Xbox in that it plays games, Sony has come out of the gates swinging. Now at E3 they will have a chance to show off core games for core gamers ... and will absolutely not do that. I’m not down on Sony; I’m just sceptical they have the ability to keep a large number of games secret in today’s leak saturated world. Xbox has teased 11 exclusive games, and a week before the event I could tell you what 6 of them are and what studios are developing 3 of the remaining 5. The two I have no idea about are new IPs from Microsoft studies, making it easy for them to keep them under wraps. For Sony I’ve got nothing. Naughty Dogs just made last of us, Forsa 4 is a PS3 exclusive, Square isn’t doing anything exclusive, and pretty much everyone else “Sony friendly” has checked in at this point. Sony’s E3 is going to show off some gimmicky crap and a new Kill Zone and Infamous, then a bunch of games you can play on your PC or Xbox.
Microsoft is going to tank a franchise (most likely Halo)
To the bold goes the spoils! You have to understand something about “install base”. There are about 60 million Xbox 360s out there, meaning if you make an Xbox 360 game 60 million people can buy it, and a percentage will buy it. If you cross platform it with the PS3, then 120 million people can buy it. Best case a new console is going to sell around 5 million in its first year so that’s only 5 million who can buy your game and about the same percentage that will. The sales you can count on if you put out a game exclusive to your new system are pretty horrible, so the risk vs. reward becomes picking a game that people will want to play enough that they buy your new system without picking a game where loss of sales opportunity will tank the franchise. Sony is clearly not willing to do this with all its big name games already announced on PS3 (one exclusively) but going in line with the “just toss money at the problem” stance I think MS is going to take look for at least one big game skipping the 360. I see this most likely being Halo 5 or Fable 3 (or both).
It’s interesting to note that Nintendo never has this problem and it’s been key to their ability to move system in the past after slow starts (game cube, 3DS). If Nintendo puts out a game system in January, the last first party game ever that will play on the old hardware came out in December, every time.
People will still believe Peter Molyneux for some reason
Fable 3 is going to change gaming forever. Nah, it's going to change the world. Every chose you make in the game will have a drastic effect on not just the living, breathing, connected system that is Fable 3 but will impact the decisions of world leaders and the UN. The moral dilemmas you encounter in the game will be so core to the human experience that the game will serve to end every major world conflict kind of like Bill and Ted do with their music. As ridiculous as this sounds, it's not even close to the bullshit that is actually going to come out of Molyneux's mouth at E3. And we'll believe him. Again. And it will all be a crap. Again. And Fable 3 will be a great but largely forgettable game that never comes into it's stride. Again.
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