The controversy this time around, which put it on the radar of non fans, is that is it an MMO. The internet is abuzz with predictions, hype, and nay-saying, as the internet is to prone to do. The gods of MMO have chosen World of Warcraft as their avatar and the disciples of this great power are quick to defend its continued dominance. SW:TOR fans seem just as quick to prop up this game as the second coming, a truly monumental event that will show these lost souls the true light. Most of us are a bit more level headed, and understand the internet is the internet and haters are gonna hate. So join me while I examine the most irrelevant question of our age, which somehow still manages to matter to about 10 million people: will SW:TOR be the “WoW killer”
First, calling anything the “x killer” is a bit much (except fear, which is universally accepted to be the mind killer). There are complex factors that affect the rise and fall of everything, and an MMO is one of the most complex systems there is. WoW has a lot to worry about without Star Wars even joining the conversation, and that’s something we need to understand a bit more before we move forward.
We’ve all heard the number 10 million (referring to the number of active WoW accounts), and I would hope we know enough about the media to know the number of times a statistic is repeated is inversely proportional to its relevance and accuracy. The argument is always the same: 10 million x $15 a month = OMG levels of money. A number so high that it effectively buffers WoW from failure while setting it apart in profitability from every game that has ever been or will be. There is a lot of truth in this; WoW is a money making powerhouse by industry standards but it is not even close to as big as you think.
Ten million is not the number of US players; it’s the number of players world-wide. WoW is more popular in Asia than it is in North America, with its single largest “subscription” base being in China - a country notoriously easy to make your largest market sector by the very nature of the insane numbers of people living there (for some reason, MMOs don’t have the same success in India). The observant among you might have noticed the quotes around subscription and already written it off as just a by-product of me being a bad writer, but that’s not the only reason. There no subscription fee in China. Instead, it’s a pay-as-you-go model that works out to pennies on the dollar of what we pay here in North America. This also leads to the guy who has 10 minutes of pay as you go time left counting as an active account until the time expires, even if he doesn’t log in for a year. Add to this the more basic “padding” tricks used by every MMO ever (free accounts, grace periods on accounts cancelled for non-payment, and generally creative accounting), and half of the money you thought WoW was making isn’t really there.
It’s not all bad news for WoW though. Most importantly, 10 million x $15 / 2 is still a lot of money, and the above explanation completely invalidates one of the most commonly quoted statistics from WoW haters: WoW has lost 4 million subscribers this year alone. Which is true, and if they stopped talking right then and there we wouldn’t have a problem. But this is the internet, and you can’t put out negative facts without some good old fashioned doom speaking. You’ll hear how this proves the game is on a decline, you’ll hear how losing $60 million a month in income that quickly is “unrecoverable” and how this trend will continue, claims running the gamut from unsubstantiated to flat out wrong. Just by numbers, if you lose a lot of accounts most should come from the area you have the most subscribers - which means China again. So worst case, “most” of the people they lost are the low paying type (it should work out to just about half, as just over half the population of the game is from ths region). However, Activision / Blizzard were clear that an even larger proportion are from China than would be expected, unfortunately without solid details. The bottom line is that the number of healthy full price paying accounts lost this year is much lower than 4 million, the amount of money lost much lower than $60 million, and the recoverability of this loss is hardly doom and gloom.
How about the game being on the decline and the trend continuing? Well, any 7 year old game is going to be on a decline but that doesn’t mean you can’t make money so expect WoW numbers to go down for as long as it’s around. Losing another 4 million players next year, however, seems unlikely. There is strong speculation that the mass exodus of China’s players is strongly tied to the gold trade, which is on a steep decline as fewer new people join and the profitability of sales falls sharply. WoW is no longer a moneymaker for the human farms who would spend hours earning gold to sell to people in game, as most people still playing WoW are either concerned with things money can’t buy or in a position to earn the gold themselves. And although this does point to a general decline in interest over all and is a strong indicator that new people are simply not joining any more (as if we didn’t get the hint from the change in the free trial system) this isn’t anything unexpected from an MMO this late in its life cycle.
The reason I spent so much time on this is because it’s important to understand just how self-fulfilling the “WoW will lose people to Star Wars” prophecy is. It’s in line with my major predictions for 2012: that the rich will get richer, snow will be wet, and music will continue to suck. But is there any reason at all to believe that Star Wars is going to have anything to do with that? Ironically, the people who seem to believe this most strongly are Activision’s CEOs. They collectively crapped in their pants after a survey (using under half of what would be considered a statistically significant sample, I might add!) indicated that about 78% of current WoW players were going to try SW:TOR, with about 50% of that number already having it pre-ordered. Just like the McDonalds CEO assuming that anyone who tries Burger King will never again eat at McDonalds, they made such a big deal of this number that they blamed a stock decrease on it. Seems like a pretty clear indicator that WoW has a lot to fear from the new kid on the block, but I’m not sure this theory is anything but clever deflection. “We are on a decline due to this incredible once in a life time competitor” is a much better sales pitch to your investors then “We are on a decline due to the inevitable and unreversable slow death of our product” after all. And what a competitor it is.
Bioware are the undisputed gods of RPGs, may all gamers praise their name (Glory to Bioware in the highest). They have proven themselves more than capable of making fantastic role playing games (everything they did until 2005), outstanding action based RPGs (Dragon Age, Mass Effect) and have shown they understand the “feel” of Star Wars better than George Lucas (Knights of the Old Republic), which is like a fan fiction Harry Potter book being better accepted by its fans then the actual novels. They even have experience taking a franchise that has gone to hell, and making it awesome again (that crazy Sonic game they made for the DS). As such, a lot of people are very excited for SW:TOR. Having played my share of the game in beta I can tell you very few of them will be disappointed; it has a single player experience on par with Dragon Age, a triple A release that sold millions. They have seamlessly woven what makes a good single player game into an MMO; a party of NPCs, rich storytelling and voice acting, and a sense of personal accomplishment. The game is simply a blast to play. And although even I was sceptical of how such a fantastic single player game could redefine itself as a greater experience just be having you join a group, the first time I did so and ran a “flash point” my eyes were open and I saw the fusion of MMO and “just really kick ass co-op”. Add in a very balanced and engaging PVP system and some raid content and we have a very complete, very polished package that is going to impress.
Strong sales numbers are a given. With close to 3 million pre-orders a week before launch it’s very likely week one sales will be TEN TIMES higher than the previous MMO record (400,000, set by Conan. Lich King doesn’t count, it’s an expansion). With most of these being a “digital collector's” edition at $70 and an undisclosed but presumably high number of $150 physical collector's editions selling out almost instantly, the day one revenue is going to be hundreds of millions range. Industry analysts are confident in about 2 million taking the six month subscription option offered day one, adding another $150 million dollars. The much more debated number of how many people will take month to month options is unclear, but safe to say it will be a large number. Bottom line is that on day one, SW:TOR could (and by all estimates will) be earning half of what WoW took 7 years to build up to. The big variable here is an ability to keep people for the long term and build on that player base, and not even my providence is up to the task of that prediction. Great MMOs fail to catch on (Everquest 2, Warhmmer, City of Heroes) and abysmal MMOs take off (Original Everquest, Lineage, WoW for its first 3 years) for seemingly random reasons. I will say this though: Star Wars Galaxies kept almost 400,000 subscribers for 5 years despite being the first scientifically proven existence of “anti-fun”. Anyone who thinks there are not 500,000 people (EA’s stated profitably target) willing to pay $15 a month just to run around with a lightsaber just doesn’t get the power of the Star Wars brand. We spent $16 each to go see three movies we absolutely hated, then bought them on DVD. SW:TOR is going to be around for a while.
At this point you may have noticed two things about this article; it talks about how WoW is going to be around and successful for the conceivable future, and how SW:TOR is also going to be around and successful for the conceivable future. Notably absent is any hint of how these two facts might be related because, alas, I don’t think they are. SW:TOR is a game for people who love RPGs, love rich story, and most importantly love Star Wars. WoW is a game for hardcore MMO fans who are driven to compete in the race to be the best or are already too addicted to the carrot dangling to ever stop. Although both will compete for a 3rd, casual market of gamers, the Venn diagram of WoW’s target audience and SW:TOR’s target audience is two circles in different rooms. Just as important is the fact that this “casual gamer”, who is playing a MMO for the sake of playing an MMO, is the guy who was going to leave WoW this year anyways because he was simply done with it. People all over the internet will make the point that this guy used to be playing WoW, he left, and now he is playing Star Wars, therefore he left WoW for Star Wars. I encourage you to stop by XKCD comic number 552 before adopting this thinking. Go on, I’ll wait.
In short nothing can be a WoW killer because an MMO of that calibre simply never dies. Everquest just put out its 22nd expansion this year. It took exactly zero time for a hacked free to play server to replace Star Wars Galaxies after Sony announced they are pulling the plug this month. Final Fantasy 11 is still around despite being replaced by its own sequel (and being horrible), and that sequel is still around despite the fact that it’s so bad they had to give it away free for over a year. So, with apologies to haters on both sides, the verdict is pretty clear: SW:TOR and WoW are both going to be dominating forces in the MMO and video game industry for years to come. So may the force be with you, or ... I guess .. may the teabagging orc be with you. Whatever floats your boat.
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